It's another Canadian trade and tariff mission to Washington, D.C. this week as negotiations continue amid tensions and a protracted trade war.
The Canadians are facing a 50% tariff imposed last month by President Donald Trump, with a deadline expiring in two weeks.
Canada’s trade minister and chief negotiator are in a series of key meetings as talks with U.S. trade officials intensify.
The meetings come in the wake of the president saying he didn’t care about a new North American trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
This latest pilgrimage to Washington by trade minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief negotiator Janice Charette, the second in as many weeks, comes as Canada’s provincial leaders wrestle with presenting a united front in the face of more tariffs. They’ve been pushing back on U.S. complaints about the ban on American alcohol and the latest comment from Trump.
"Their leadership, from Trudeau to the current leadership, I mean, in all fairness to them, they need us to survive," Trump said.
Whether he’s playing hardball tactics in the current negotiations or not, Canadians are split on how hard to push back. Some, such as Ontario Premier Doug Ford and New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, say they’re willing to push back hard, and they’re open to using energy as leverage.
Some analysts, however, warn that threatening energy could be risky. Prime Minister Mark Carney doesn’t appear keen on using energy as a bargaining chip.
"We have many exports and commodities," he said. "One of the biggest commodities, arguably the best, is trust. People trust us. And so when you are a supplier of a key commodity, key service, you got to think really hard about not supplying. That very much colors it."
Carney has been working to diversity Canada’s trade relationships over the past year to be less dependent on the U.S.
But it’s clear Canadians are worried about the tariffs, about the economy, the cost of living and jobs. Many Americans are also concerned.
"American stakeholders, industry groups, trade groups, academics, bipartisan stakeholder voices have all been saying: 'What are you doing to the Canadian relationship with the U.S.'" said Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association. "Our return on investment depends on a good smooth relationship, so it also may mean that the administration is getting a lot of noise now from American stakeholders."
Two visits to the U.S. in two weeks does signify that talks are intensifying ahead of the deadline.
"I don’t think it’s a hard deadline," said Stuart Trew, researcher at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. "I think if you look at what they did last year, they’re always moving these deadlines. They can push them back by a month if they think the talks are going well. It’s leverage, and we may be moving into some kind of homestretch. And we know the USTR Jamieson Greer wants to have bilateral agreements with Mexico and Canada by the end of the year, he said that last week."
LeBlanc’s trip this week is open-ended. He has had meetings with U.S. business groups and will also meet with key U.S. senators that could help advance Canada’s cause. But the countdown is underway and analysts say he’s facing an administration that, if anything, can be unpredictable.
