Gun violence remains dramatically below Buffalo's historical averages, but 2026 has seen slightly more shootings and shooting victims than this point last year.
On Monday, Mayor Sean Ryan attributed this year’s increase in shootings largely to violence over the Fourth of July, arguing the city otherwise would be trending below last year’s numbers.
“The uptick was all based on Fourth of July," Ryan said, "but for those incidents of that day, we would be well below the trend from the previous year."
While shootings and shooting victims have ticked up slightly from this point last year, city data shows gun violence remains substantially below the levels Buffalo has experienced over the past five and 10 years.
By the numbers:
- 71 shooting incidents so far in 2026 — 46% below the 10-year average and 40% below the five-year average.
- 86 shooting victims — 45% below the 10-year average and 40% below the five-year average.
- 14 total homicides — 59% below the 10-year average and 60% below the five-year average.
- Compared with this point in 2025, shooting incidents are up about 4% and shooting victims are up about 10%, while shooting homicides are down about 23% and total homicides are down about 22%, according to BPD’s data sheet.
- Buffalo police have made 282 gun arrests and seized 437 firearms so far this year.
Ryan commended law enforcement for helping keep Buffalo streets safer, but said more work remains to protect residents.
“You don't take your foot off the gas because you had a good quarter, a good year; you keep going," he said. "We take every shooting seriously, and we're not declaring victory, but it's important to note and to celebrate the good work.”
City officials say part of that work involves removing illegal firearms from circulation. Buffalo police have seized 437 guns and made 282 gun arrests since January. Buffalo Police Commissioner Erika Shields said roughly 7 to 10% of the guns recovered are self-made ghost guns, which can be harder for investigators to trace. She credited the department’s efforts to focus on people believed to be directly involved in violent crime.
“You need to have a very linear, very direct focus on individuals who you know are engaged in illegal violent crime," she said. "Off of that, we're finding our detectives are doing an exceptional job of identifying the players in the illegal gun market, getting search warrants, getting them in custody, and getting the guns off the street.”
Ryan said police believe guns entering Buffalo largely come through two avenues: weapons trafficked from states with looser gun laws — the so-called "iron pipeline" — and legally owned firearms that are stolen from homes or vehicles after being left unsecured. He specifically urged gun owners to secure firearms because stolen weapons can subsequently enter the illegal market.
"To the community of gun owners, it's your responsibility to secure your weapon because that weapon will end up if it's stolen out in the street and used for illegal purposes," Ryan said.
