There appear to be no signs of a quick end to the trade war between the US and Canada.
Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has said United States President Donald Trump is out to break Canada economically.
Trump often refers to his northern neighbor as the "51st state" — a phrase that riles Canadians.
Although Trump has ruled out using military force to annex Canada, Carney recently gave an interview to the New York Times in which he said it would be irresponsible not to prepare for such a possibility.
That comment, by Carney on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, drew headlines around the world. Over the past week, it’s become the chatter of politicians, analysts and military strategists.
Carney has gone to great lengths over the past year to steer Canada away from its dependence on the U.S. as a major trading and security partner. The two countries share the longest undefended border in the world. They’ve been allies in countless global conflicts. But with a new force in the White House and a trade war in full swing, the relationship has changed. Behind that strain looms the trade war — Carney says you’re at war when you’re are attacked, referring to the economic conflict Trump has unleashed.
In his eye-catching interview with the New York Times, Carney said Ottawa is prepared for the possibility of Trump ordering a military invasion of Canada. He described it as "an extreme tail risk," though unlikely, adding that it would irresponsible not to prepare.
He wouldn’t be more specific, nor would Minister of National Defence of Canada David McGuinty.
"All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios," McGuinty said.
Other cabinet ministers echoed the same position that risk management is part of the prime minister’s job.
A former Conservative defense and foreign affairs minister, Peter MacKay, however, said it is Carney who is being irresponsible to give this kind of an interview.
"This happening in the United States at a time when we have heightened tensions already, words like 'war' and 'rupture,' now 'invasion' added to that, takes us from the realm of retaliation to provocation," MacKay said.
A senior US military commander is dismissing the idea of a U.S. invasion of Canada as preposterous.
"I find that scenario to be absolutely and utterly preposterous," said Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of the U.S. Pacific Command. "Would you ask me please, also, what my attack plans are for the Martians?"
It’s generally acknowledged the Canadian military would be quickly overwhelmed in a conventional war with the U.S. Resistance would then be left in the form of a guerrilla campaign.
Wendy Gilmour, the vice chair of the board for the Conference of Defence Associations Institute, said a full scale invasion by the U.S. is unlikely.
"I think prime minister Carney’s description of an 'extreme tail risk' is apt," Gilmour said. "But what’s interesting about that term is, in economics, extreme tail is very low probability but extremely high consequence. At the end of the day, it’s the responsibility of governments to think through all scenarios and ensure that we are prepared."
Stephen Saideman, a professor of political science at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, also doesn’t believe an invasion is likely.
"One thing that may prevent him from invading Canada is that the American military might not go along with it," Saideman said. "Yes, the American military has followed questionable and illegal orders thus far, but this might be the one thing that’s a step too far because a lot of American military leaders have worked alongside Canada in places like Kandahar and they don’t see Canada as a threat."
Saideman also considers the possibility that Carney’s interview, conducted in the U.S., is a more political message to the American people, ahead of the midterm elections.
"And I think he’s trying to tell the American people that they have some leverage in the near future, and they should use it to try to restrain a president who’s out of control," he said.
The U.S. to invaded Canada during the Revolutionary War — troops under Benedict Arnold tried to capture Quebec. Several U.S. attempts during the War of 1812 were repelled, and, at the end of the Civil War in 1866, a group of Irish Americans, called Fenians, launched unsuccessful raids across Canada, with the blessing of the White House.
