A layout of a trade deal.
That’s how sources in Ottawa are describing the results of the latest talks between Canadian and American trade negotiators meeting in Washington, D.C.
It would head off the 50% tariffs threatened by the White House that are to kick in Aug. 19.
Canadian trade minister Dominic LeBlanc went back to Washington on Monday, his third trip in as many weeks. He met with U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday, and several media outlets report the two are preparing the layout of trade deal that will be presented to President Donald Trump.
Reporters tried to get some clarification from LeBlanc, but he wouldn’t divulge anything.
"You know we’re not going to discuss those things," he said. "We’ll have something to say when the moment is right."
Greer also had no comment.
Over the past week, much of the talk in Canada has been about what concessions Ottawa might make to have the new tariffs removed — and to get a more comprehensive deal.
Louise Blais, Quebec’s representative for the review of the USMCA — or CUSMA, as the Canadians call it — suggested there is some key movement in the talks.
"It’s quite possible that things will get quite tough for this week," she said. "That often happens near the end, and that sometimes can be a good sign. It means that we’re finally getting to those issues where both sides are not yet in the same space. But both want to find a way forward."
If the tariff deadline passes without a deal, it won’t be good news for either country, according to Jean Charest, a former premier of Quebec and now a member of the prime minister’s advisory council on Canada-U.S. economic relations.
"I think it would be wise to not to have not too high expectations," he said. "We’re not going to, by the 19th of August, deal with everything. But there’s a real chance that progress can be made. We can put ourselves on a track that would allow us to stay at the table and resolve the agreement and have a comprehensive agreement on our trade relationship that would be in everyone’s interest."
For the U.S., several trade irritants continue to be mentioned: Canada’s dairy quota system, and the ban on U.S. alcohol sales. But reversing that ban is a provincial matter, and most provinces won’t do that unless there are some concessions from the U.S.
"Canada will continue to meet the give-and-take in this conversation with the United States while being very cautious not to give up too much here for what is still a non-guaranteed outcome," said Diamond Isinger, an advisor for former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
Another issue that hovers on the edges of the talks, and with some possible impact, is Ottawa’s review of purchasing F-35 fighter jets. Carney has said he won’t be rushed into that decision.
For its part, Ottawa wants movement on key sectoral tariffs, autos, steel and aluminum and forest products.
The stakes are high for both countries. A new report by the Canadian American Business Council said if talks break down on a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement, Canada could lose more than 100,000 jobs next year — and the U.S. more than 210,000. The report also said if there is a successful renegotiation, tens of thousands of jobs would be created in both countries.
