Political history is about to be made in Canada on Monday as three federal by-elections are being held; two of them in Ontario and one in Quebec.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals need to win only one of those by-elections to form a majority government — an event the Liberals have not enjoyed over the past three federal elections.
Carney hasn’t won that elusive majority yet, but at a national convention of the Liberal Party held in Montreal, he was already being greeted by delegates as if he has.
Carney led the Liberal comeback a year ago during the federal election, winning 169 seats but still three seats short of a majority.
Since then he’s lost two high-profile Liberal members of Parliament who moved on to other posts. A third seat, this one in Quebec, was won a year ago by one vote but was overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada after a voter didn’t have her mail-in ballot counted.
But, and it’s a big one, since then five opposition members of Parliament — four of them Conservatives and one a New Democrat — have crossed the floor of the House of Commons to join the Liberal Party.
That now leaves Carney one vote shy of a majority. Two of Monday's by-elections are in Toronto and considered safe Liberal strongholds. The third is in Quebec and is seen as a toss up between the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois — both of which have thrown everything they can into the campaign for today’s vote.
Sabrina Grover, a Liberal party strategist, said much of the talk over the weekend was about floor crossers but also the growth of the party.
"I think people are just excited to see the momentum and the strength of the party," she said. "We have over 4,500 people registered, which is perhaps the largest convention that the Liberals have had in at least many decades."
One of the most recent MPs to cross the floor, and only last week, was long time Conservative Marilyn Gladu. She said she supports what Carney is doing and that was a big part of her decision.
"I’ve been watching the Prime Minister since he was elected," Gladu said, "and the big thing that he is driving, nation-building projects, diversifying our trade, bolstering our defense, plans to address criminality and build more homes — these are all the things that Canadians want."
But her old boss, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is angry he’s lost a fourth member of his caucus to the Liberals, and he has a message for Canadian voters.
"Mark Carney is saying is that your vote doesn’t count," Poilievre said. "That he is going to use back room dirty deals to reverse the election result in countless ridings, robbing people of their voice and giving him the power to raise your cost of living."
Poilievre now faces more questions about his own leadership style after the defections of four of his Conservative MPs.
And there are rumors that more unhappy Conservatives are also mulling over the possibility of walking over to the Liberals — a question put to Carney by journalists in Ottawa.
"I’m often the last to know," Carney responded. "Not quite the last to know, but I will tell you in all seriousness what has been the case is in each of these circumstances that the individuals have come to people they know well in the Liberal caucus and expressed an interest in joining."
Some party insiders suggest there could be at least another half a dozen or so opposition members ready to join the Liberal team.
Carney’s message ahead of Monday's by-elections is to build "Canada Strong" by recommitting to the message and mission he gave a year ago; that Canada is not just for some, most of the time, but for all, all the time.
