Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he’s not going to his Florida property, but he’s advising other Canadians to go if they want. However, the latest data shows that the number of Canadians heading south to Florida and other warm U.S. states continues to decline. Some experts are advising Canadians to avoid travelling south in light of the new border requirements.
According to newly released U.S. government data, a growing number of Canadians have been arrested or held by American immigration authorities over the past two years.
More than 200 Canadians have been detained in ICE custody since January, that’s compared to 137 in 2024.
Sharry Aiken is a law professor at Queen’s University. She said the increase is mainly due to more enforcement, not an increase in serious crimes.
"We’re looking at very minor criminal infractions. But sufficient to attract the radar of U.S. enforcement, right? And so typically in the past what would happen if somebody was identified in the United States without proper documentation, or not entitled to the documentation that they do have, they would be requested to leave, so that at the border they would be denied entry," said Aiken. "If identified within the country they would be advised that their status was expired or non existent or whatever the case may be and that they should head north. People were not routinely detained ancillary to this process. That is what has changed."
The data appears to back that up. Some 94 Canadians were detained because they didn’t have valid visas, and 66 for overstaying non-immigrant visas.
But the main reason that Canadians are staying away from the U.S. is President Donald Trump and his changes to Washington’s immigration policies, his talk about Canada as the 51st state and his tariffs — which are hurting Canadians in their wallets — prompting their desire to spend their money elsewhere.
That includes Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
"Let me tell you, it’s gonna be the first time I’m not going to Florida," said Ford. "But I talked to so many people, don’t let this guy, Trump, determine and ruin your life in everything. That’s my personal choice. Maybe some families have gone to Florida their whole lives. Go to Florida, that’s great. But I encourage you to stay here and support local tourism."
Most seniors in Canada used to head south over two periods: November so they could avoid the winters, and then after Christmas and New Year’s so they could first spend the holiday with family before heading south.
They’re still travelling, actually more than ever, but not to the warmer southern American states. What Canadians are not spending south of the border is adding up.
Flight Centre is reporting that travel to the U.S. is down 40% over the past year and that downward trend is expected to continue in 2026.
Some travel companies are seeing the same trend. Jenna English is with G Adventures, which specializes in small group packages.
"While our bookings in the United States are down, it doesn’t mean that Canadians are travelling less, they’re simply choosing different destinations," English said. "People are trying to avoid the kind of 'over tourism,' so they're choosing to travel during quieter times, when it’s not quite as busy"
They are opting to go to places like the Caribbean, Japan and Europe.
"We’ve seen increase to somewhere like Japan where their dollar does stretch a bit further. Places like Australia," said Anita Emilio with Flight Centre. "The Canadian dollar is stronger than the Australian dollar is, so Canadians once they get there they feel that they can really stretch their dollar."
Most travel companies say customers are booking sunny vacation destinations over the next three months, and longer term vacations into the summer for Europe and Asia, but not in the U.S.
