AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
As the old cliche goes, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, and he joins us now to talk about what he'll be watching for as the results roll in on Tuesday. Hi there, Domenico.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Great to be with you. Let's go.
RASCOE: Let's go.
MONTANARO: (Laughter).
RASCOE: As polls start to close on Tuesday, what will you be looking for in the early results?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, one of the big things I'm watching on election night is Republican turnout. If Republicans have a high level of turnout on election night, that could really mitigate some of these Democratic gains that are expected. If they have a low turnout, then we could see a real washout across the country.
So early on, we're going to start to see results come in in the 6 p.m. Eastern time hour. And two races I'm particularly watching are the 5th Congressional District in Indiana and the 6th Congressional District in Kentucky because Kentucky is a close race. And we're not sure which way it's going to be going, and we're going to see what those margins are. In Indiana 5 - that's incumbent Victoria Spartz's district - she's expected to win. But if she's in a tighter race than expected, look out for the rest of the night and for what that could mean for the House.
Also, in Florida - Florida, also, we're going to see a lot of results start to come in fairly early on. And, you know, look at a place like Florida 22. That is a huge Latino population. If you're seeing Democrats do well in a place like that, that could mean a big sweep across South Florida and South Texas for what we see later on.
RASCOE: We'll have a lot of races closing at 9 p.m. Eastern time. How will your focus have shifted by that time?
MONTANARO: From a trickle to a fire hose. I mean, at 9 p.m., we're looking at Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. All will have results coming in. And we're going to really have a good sense, especially in the House, 'cause it's only a three-seat majority for Republicans. We're going to start to get a real sense of whether or not Democrats take over the House in the 9 p.m. hour.
RASCOE: Talk to me about the Senate. There's lots of news about lots of races. The president is in Iowa and Kansas today. Alaska is competitive. Will we have to wait until the last polls close there, well past midnight Eastern time, to know which party controls the Senate?
MONTANARO: God, you are giving me my worst-nightmare scenario...
RASCOE: OK.
MONTANARO: ...Which is quite possible because Alaska is one of those places that is looking really close right now - a toss-up state, a red state that Trump won but looks very, very close, and it counts votes very, very slowly. It has rank-choice voting. They didn't decide their races sometimes till three weeks later. If we're stuck in a mess of three weeks waiting to know control of the Senate, there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of misinformation going on. We know that President Trump's already laying the groundwork to say that the election was rigged. You know, it's better to have decisive victories one way or the other in this country because close elections tend to now be contested.
But look. You've got five toss-up seats that are in red states, all places Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. And again, here's where Republican turnout is really going to matter. If Trump can get that base out, you know, you could be looking at a one- or two-seat Democratic net pickup in the Senate. And remember, they need four seats to take control of the Senate. If Republican turnout's not great, you know, you could be looking at six or seven seats that go toward Democrats.
RASCOE: When you watch the exit polls come in, what will you be looking for in what people are saying they care about?
MONTANARO: Yeah. There's a couple of numbers that I'm looking for. No. 1, when it comes to 18- to 29-year-olds, you know, they turn out at a very low percentage in midterm elections. They have - they see the steepest drop-off from presidential elections of any subgroup. And I'm looking to see if Democrats can win young voters by more than 20 points. I think that margin is going to be really key.
I'm also looking for how Latinos wind up voting in, again, South Florida and South Texas. Remember, Trump won 46% of them in the 2024 presidential election, the highest ever for a Republican presidential candidate. They have been really soured on Trump, according to polls - 27% approval rating, for example, in the latest NBC Telemundo poll. And finally, the third thing I would look for is the number 46% when it comes to how Republicans do with independents. In the Trump era, when Republicans have gotten 46% or more with independents, they've seen success. When they've been below that, in two elections, they have not - 2018 and 2020.
RASCOE: That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thanks so much.
MONTANARO: You're so welcome. Thank you.
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