SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Israel are planning for possible strikes on Iran after Tuesday's midterms, and Qatar has been leading intense mediation efforts over the past 72 hours to try to prevent that from happening. The uncertainty of what comes next has the entire Gulf region on edge. NPR's international correspondent Aya Batrawy is in Bahrain, and she's with us to talk about all this. Hi, Aya.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Hey, Sacha.
PFEIFFER: To start us off, a two-part question - what do these mediation efforts look like, and what has President Trump said, if anything, about how likely another attack on Iran is?
BATRAWY: All right. So Qatar has been really tight-lipped about what's been going on. They did have some mediators visiting Tehran, and also Iran had a delegation in Doha, Qatar - all of this over the past 72 hours. But Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, today, was quoted in Iranian state media saying there's still no definitive conclusion to these mediation efforts. But he said there is talk of a two-day plan. That would include basically the Iranians not attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow for direct talks to begin again between Washington and Tehran.
And Trump was asked about the possibility of restarting the war with Iran. He was at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, and he said, we're not in that much of a hurry. Have a listen.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We've knocked out almost every piece of military equipment there. We've knocked out a lot of their manufacturing capabilities. We've knocked out the nuclear. We've knocked out their nuclear. We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes.
BATRAWY: So as you heard there, President Trump isn't really saying what he might do after Tuesday's elections. Now, everyone I have been speaking to in the Gulf - from senior European diplomats to Arab military generals - no one has any idea what Trump will do, but the lives of tens of millions of people in the Gulf hinge on his decision.
PFEIFFER: And we have heard President Trump say many times that Iran is essentially finished. We heard him say that again in the cut you just played for us. Based on your reporting, how true is that?
BATRAWY: Yeah. I mean, Iran was hit hard after the U.S. and Israel launched this war eight months ago, killing the country's supreme leader, top military commanders, taking out many of its ships, missile production sites. But even after eight months of war and crippling U.S. economic sanctions, the war has not toppled Iran's regime as Israel said it was its stated goal. And Iran's Revolutionary Guard force is still very capable of inflicting pain on Gulf Arab countries. These are some of the world's most important oil and gas producers, and this war and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil and gas prices to rise globally. Brent crude oil is 60% higher today than it was before the war.
PFEIFFER: Aya, you said that Iran could inflict pain on other Gulf Arab countries. Is Iran saying what it would do if it's attacked again?
BATRAWY: Yes. The message from Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to senior commanders of Iran's armed forces this weekend is that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response that is, quote, "without geographical limitations." Now, Iran's state media says this means that any new Israeli or U.S. attacks on Iran will inflict even greater damage than we have already seen.
PFEIFFER: We mentioned that you are in Bahrain. Are you seeing signs of damage? Is it evident where you are?
BATRAWY: Yeah. So Bahrain is an island nation. It's a tiny country in the Persian Gulf, with Iran as its much larger neighbor to the East, and it's home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. But on the first day of this war on February 28, Iran hit back at U.S. military sites across the region, and they hit here on the 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses. So you can't take photos of facilities like this here in Bahrain that have been hit, but you can see the damage to the 5th Fleet's hub right there from the highway. I could see radar equipment that had been hit, and I could see charred and blackened warehouses where the 5th Fleet logistics hub is. And there used to be 8,000 military personnel on this base before the war, and now it's down to less than a hundred.
Now, I have been at the Manama Dialogue - it's a security forum here in Bahrain. And today, Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, spoke of the many missiles and drones fired at his country by Iran, not just at U.S. military sites but also civilian infrastructure. And he noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guard this month has made new threats to hit undersea internet cables that carry data through the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf States if a war resumes. Have a listen.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
ABDULLATIF AL ZAYANI: This follows the same pattern we have seen at sea - a shared artery is being used as a tool of pressure and threat.
BATRAWY: And Iran did hit Amazon data centers at the peak of this war in the United Arab Emirates in Bahrain.
PFEIFFER: Aya, you mentioned that you're at a security forum. Given that security is top of mind for the whole region now, what kind of emotions, sort of emotional tenor, conversations are you hearing at that event?
BATRAWY: Yeah. I mean, Gulf Arab states - they view Iran as a top threat to their security, but it is still their neighbor. And so while they welcome U.S. pressure on Iran, they did not and do not want war with Iran. Even the United Arab Emirates, which has strong ties with both the U.S. and Israel and has the most hawkish policy in the Gulf on Iran, does not want more war. Senior Emerati diplomat, Anwar Gargash, said it clearly today at the summit.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
ANWAR GARGASH: We really have to deal with this crisis with a lot of wisdom, with political tools being our main tools and with the understanding that military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution.
BATRAWY: Yeah. So as you heard him say there, military solutions will not bring a quick off-ramp here. And, you know, places like Dubai known as safe havens to invest in and spend your vacations in - that's all been shaken by this war. Economies across the Gulf are suffering. And don't forget Saudi Arabia is struggling now to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. So the united message here from the Gulf is that more attacks on Iran will be devastating.
PFEIFFER: And the ripple effects of the war are rippling all across the region, for sure. That is NPR's international correspondent Aya Batrawy. Aya, thank you.
BATRAWY: Thank you, Sacha.
(SOUNDBITE OF BADBADNOTGOOD AND GHOSTFACE KILLAH'S "EXPERIENCE") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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