AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
It's been an autumn of discontent in Europe.
(SOUNDBITE OF PROTEST)
UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTERS: (Chanting) Tax the rich. Tax the rich. Tax the rich.
RASCOE: Demonstrators in Paris chanting tax the rich yesterday. Protests have also gripped Spain, Italy, Albania and other nations as young people take to the streets to voice their anger at various disappointments. Joining us now is Timothy Garton Ash. He taught European studies at Oxford and is the author most recently of "Europe In 7 1/2 Chapters." Welcome to the program.
TIMOTHY GARTON ASH: Hello. Good to be with you.
RASCOE: Let's start in France, where protests started last month and have at times turned violent. What's fueling those demonstrations?
GARTON ASH: As you were saying, there's this incredible wave of mainly youth protests right across Europe. I mean, the last time we saw it so much across the continent was 1968. And in each case, there's a different spark. In the French case, the spark was the state of French schools. In Spain, it was about an old lady being evicted from her apartment because they tried to hike the rent outrageously. What then happens is that all the discontents of this generation of young Europeans come together, whether it's in Paris or it's in Madrid, or it's in Rome, or in Serbia or Albania.
RASCOE: Well, is there a through line, though? I know you said that each one has a different spark, but is there a through line to these grievances that we're seeing at protests around Europe?
GARTON ASH: There clearly is a profound discontent and actually anger at the way in which those in power, particularly sort of liberal centrist, technocratic governments like those of French president Emmanuel Macron for nearly 10 years, have simply not delivered what people expect. Almost everywhere, the issue of affordable housing in big cities, particularly rentals, is a huge issue, but then people are also worried about jobs. Older people are worried about pensions. The whole European social contract, which said life will gradually get better, is now drastically in question. And if you look at opinion polls, by the way, both young and old people say they think that younger Europeans' lives are going to be worse than those of their parents.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, that sounds a lot about - like the discontent in the U.S. as well. What are the long-term challenges facing European governments, and are they equipped to deal with this discontent?
GARTON ASH: So first of all, it is very alike. And after all, Mamdani's election in New York - this is one of the big issues. After all, we have similar, if you like, neoliberal economic systems, the levels of economic inequality, the intergenerational sense of unfairness, i.e., systems which are really working still well for the old pensioners who turn out to vote, but not for the young. That you can see almost everywhere. But then you have to be careful because it all depends who's in power. You see, in France, it's a liberal technocratic center. It's Emmanuel Macron and co. So as they go into the presidential election next spring, basically, people are going either to the far right, Marine Le Pen of the so-called National Rally or to the far left, Mr. Melenchon.
In Spain, it's a socialist government which isn't delivering, so it looks as if it will go off to the right. In Serbia and actually in Albania, it's about kind of semi-authoritarian rulers who've been in power a very long time. And by the way, as we speak today, there's been an amazing mobilization by Serbian students to try to topple the very unpopular president, Aleksandar Vucic, in an election.
RASCOE: What role has the Trump administration played in all this? The war with Iran has obviously raised fuel costs and the cost of living. Are voters connecting those dots?
GARTON ASH: I'm not sure that voters are so much, but what you've got to understand is that we have had in Europe a cascade of crises ever since the 2008 global financial crisis. That became the Eurozone crisis. Then we had the refugee and migration crisis. Then we had Trump 1, but also Brexit. Then we had COVID. Then we had the first big war, which is, of course, Vladimir Putin's full-scale war against Ukraine and then Trump's disastrous war of choice against Iran. And each of those successive crises has hit some, if not all, parts of society.
RASCOE: You've written about Europe for decades, including the fall of communism. Just how significant is this moment?
GARTON ASH: This is a make-or-break moment for Europe. I've never known a moment when the, broadly speaking, liberal, internationalist, pro-European forces and the populist, anti-liberal, nationalist, euroskeptic forces have been so finely balanced. And so the big question about these demonstrations is not so much their immediate impact but what impact are they going to have in this amazing super cycle of elections that was already started in Germany, continues in Spain on November 29, next spring in France, then also in Italy and Poland. It may well be that if we spoke again in January 2028, you would have not one or two populist nationalist leaders, but five or six in the major European countries. And then we'd be looking at a very different Europe.
RASCOE: That's British historian Timothy Garton Ash. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
GARTON ASH: It's a pleasure.
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