A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Let's hear now from someone who tracks threats from Iran. Megan Sutcliffe is a Middle East and Africa analyst for Sibylline. That's a firm that advises clients on risks around the world. She joins us now from London. So when you heard that the U.S. was bringing those bombers home, what'd you think, Megan?
MEGAN SUTCLIFFE: Good morning. Well, initially, it was a surprise that we saw the U.S. pulling all of its bombers out of RAF Fairford and doing so as quickly as they did. Local reports would indicate that fuel tankers and airplanes capable of refueling the bombers were not part of the flight that took place to return those bombers to the United States. And that would indicate that this was something that was organized very, very rapidly. And so what we're looking at here is likely a threat environment that has become more precarious and more volatile for the U.S. And that speaks to the broader threats to U.S. security, British security and European security as tensions with Iran remain particularly elevated.
MARTÍNEZ: So organized quickly. I mean, that sounds like they were really worried that something might happen.
SUTCLIFFE: Absolutely. And that would mirror the types of statements that we've seen President Trump making over the past few days, in which he stated that there were, quote, "specific threats" to the airbase, as well as the vice president, JD Vance, stating that essentially this evacuation was done out of an abundance of caution. That's all we really have in terms of official statements regarding the RAF Fairford incident.
However, there have been numerous reports in outlets like Reuters and The New York Times indicating that the U.S. received intelligence regarding an imminent threat of a drone attack targeting RAF Fairford - potentially one that would involve short-range weaponized drones in conjunction with a broader distraction to draw away defense capabilities from the aerial space and then maximize the potential impact of those drones on U.S. service personnel and, indeed, aircraft within the airbase itself.
MARTÍNEZ: From what you know, does Iran have those capabilities to carry out an attack like that?
SUTCLIFFE: Iran absolutely has those capabilities. If we split it into two, looking at the disruption part of things and the drone part of things, in terms of disruption, Iran has well-established networks of intelligence agents, recruiters and, indeed, organized criminal elements, which it is capable of using to perpetrate attacks and hazard events within the U.K. We've seen that very recently with various Iranian proxies targeting Jewish and Israeli communities in cities such as London in the area of Golders Green. So they definitely have that capability in the U.K.
Regarding drone threats, of course, Iran has one of the most advanced drone programs in the world. And it's capable of manufacturing drones very, very quickly and using them even more efficiently. We've seen that over the past seven and a half months in the Middle East and, indeed, over the past several years with reference to its collaboration with Russia in providing them with Shahed drones used in Ukraine. So Iran definitely has those capabilities. However, them deploying them in the United Kingdom and specifically potentially targeting a U.S. base - that is a new development and one that speaks to just how acute these security threats are becoming.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And it sounds like that means that any military base the U.S. has around the world is vulnerable.
SUTCLIFFE: Absolutely. Unnamed military sources speaking to The New York Times a few days ago indicated that the risk of targeting also extends to U.S. bases in Germany, such as those in Ramstein. And we've already seen Iran's capability of perpetrating drone attacks in the Middle East as far away as Jordan from Iranian territory. So those threats are certainly there. But the question really is - in what condition is Iran willing to use those capabilities?
Over the past few months, we've seen hostilities being primarily limited to the Middle East. And that corresponds to Iran's overarching interest in deterring the U.S. from engaging in further airstrikes and, in the long term, the U.S. drawing down its presence in the Middle East, particularly away from Iranian soil.
However, extending that into Europe speaks to a greater appetite for escalation on the part of Iran. It speaks to potentially Iranian desperation to secure a U.S. concession in the form of a ceasefire. And so all of that taken together, it means that we're in a more volatile security environment, particularly when we're talking about U.S. bases overseas.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. It sounds like maybe if you're a U.S. ally and you're thinking about an American military installation, it might feel or seem like a liability now.
SUTCLIFFE: Absolutely. And that is part and parcel of Iran's overarching goal when it comes to the U.S.'s military presence around the world. And it certainly corresponds to the goals of Iran's allies, such as Russia, which, of course, also aims to seek a U.S. drawdown from major theaters like Europe. Essentially, what this does is it is part of Iran's long-term campaign to remove the U.S.'s capacity to act as a global superpower or at least to meaningfully intervene in a military sense in various theaters where Iran has interests. Essentially, what we're looking at here is an environment in which Iran is ready, willing and able to use its offensive capabilities. And unfortunately, that makes all of us less safe, whether we're talking about the Middle East, Europe or the United States.
MARTÍNEZ: Megan Sutcliffe is a Middle East and Africa analyst for the geopolitical risk firm Sibylline. Thank you very much.
SUTCLIFFE: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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