SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Swing voters in Michigan are sour on the economy and President Trump's handling of it. That is one takeaway from a pair of focus groups this week. NPR's senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson observed them and joins us now to discuss. Mara, always good to talk to you.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Good to talk to you too.
DETROW: You have been tracking these focus groups every month. They're always with voters who supported President Trump in 2024 after voting for Joe Biden in 2020. So, you know, this is a key segment of the electorate. And it really seems like economic concerns are just top of mind for everyone.
LIASSON: That's right. This is a consistent echo across all our focus groups - No. 1 issue, affordability, cost of living. And, you know, while focus groups are not statistically significant - it's just a small group of people - this does line up with polling. Polls tell us what voters are feeling. Focus groups give us a chance to hear why they're feeling it. And what was interesting about this month is that we went to Michigan. This was a group of Michigan voters. They're seeing President Trump's ongoing trade standoff with Canada up close. It's right next door to them. It's very personal. And I want to play a little sample of what voters had to say about the tariffs. Everyone in these groups is identified by first names only. So here are Barbara, Jean and Jess.
BARBARA: I just go into the stores, and I looked at my shampoo, and I said, OK, this is going to go up 50% because my shampoo is made in Canada.
JEAN: Michigan has the auto industry. I think the tariffs for that is very hurtful for the state.
JESS: Well, if I buy a car that's made in Canada, then it will affect me because the tariffs are now 50%.
DETROW: This is interesting, Mara, because I feel like sometimes politicians, political operatives will say, oh, this is just white noise. Voters aren't paying attention to these details like professionals are. That's not true. These voters know the specifics, and these are voters in a swing state.
LIASSON: In a swing state with a very vital Senate race - Michigan is ground zero for an experiment that Donald Trump is carrying out. Basically, can Republicans perform well in the midterms in spite of the economic decisions he's making on things like tariffs or the war in Iran that make Republican candidates' life harder? And here we are in a state that's very closely connected to their next-door trading partner.
Now, Democrats are also engaged in an experiment in Michigan, which is, can a progressive candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, unify his party coalition, mend fences with Jewish voters, for example, that were strained during the midterms in time for November? And I can tell you that Michigan is a marquee Senate race that Democrats are worried about and Republicans are optimistic about.
DETROW: One factor then that I'm really wondering about is what voters think about President Trump.
LIASSON: Well, I was particularly struck by something that a voter named PJ said. Like all the other voters in our group, he voted for Trump in 2024. Now he says he's embarrassed by the president. He said he voted for him because Trump promised to stop foreign wars. Here he is talking about Iran.
PJ: Every single day, we're one day closer to ending the war, ending the war, ending the war. You know, fuel prices are going to go down. And then, you know, next day comes - oh, one more day, one more week, two more weeks. Now, I think today he said it's going to be after the midterms.
LIASSON: So that really stood out to me. It sounds like, for PJ, Trump's schtick is wearing thin with the constantly shifting promise of shifting timelines. We know from polls that President Trump is losing support among some of his core Republican voters. Support for him is still high in that group, but it's down from a year ago. And another thing we've heard consistently in these groups - people are able to directly connect Trump's actions to their own economic struggles. They connect the war with higher fuel prices. They connect tariffs with higher costs.
DETROW: Anything else jump out to you from this focus group?
LIASSON: Yeah, the focus group illustrates something else we're seeing in polling, which is the convergence of economic populism from the left and the right. People feel wealth inequality has gone too far. There's even contempt for the wealthy. I was thinking about this when I was listening to a voter named Tony. He's very pro-Trump. He approves of the job Trump is doing. But listen to him here.
TONY: I have nothing against billionaires or people who are making money, but I think that a lot of our problems, economic problems, are stemming from those who can't get enough, who want it all and want more and more and more. Of course that affects us because we're footing the bill.
DETROW: Mara, is that swing voter Tony, or is that Bernie Sanders?
LIASSON: (Laughter) Yeah. Look, there's real disillusionment with the economic status quo. People feel the system is not delivering. Our focus group was asked about the American dream - the idea if you work hard, play by the rules, get an education, you can do as well or better than your parents. Not a single one said the American dream was alive and well. Here's Tanya.
TANYA: There's no more middle class. It's the rich and the poor.
LIASSON: And she blamed President Trump's economic policies for killing the American dream. In the midterms, the incumbent party gets the blame. And that leaves the big question, how will Trump's decisions - decisions that voters are directly connecting to the economy - shape the vote in Senate and House races in battleground states like Michigan?
DETROW: NPR's Mara Liasson, thanks so much.
LIASSON: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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