LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Let's bring in Suzanne Maloney. She's advised both Democratic and Republican administrations on Iran policy. She's now at the nonpartisan think tank the Brookings Institution, where she directs the foreign policy program and focuses on Iran and Persian Gulf energy. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
SUZANNE MALONEY: Thanks, Leila.
FADEL: So we just heard U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz say the Trump administration is giving the talks, quote, "some space." But there have been many rounds of talks before. Is this any different than previous pauses in fighting that led to more attacks?
MALONEY: Well, I think we are in a period of no war and no peace with Iran. There will be diplomacy. There will probably be additional violence as we move forward. But the president and his administration here in Washington seem to have rightly decided that there was no military value to continuing additional airstrikes on Iran. The president had been threatening to strike civilian targets. That was likely to lead to an escalation not just by Iran, but as your reporter just indicated, by the Houthis, who have sought to target traffic in the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb, as well as Saudi oil infrastructure. And that was having a real upward pressure on energy prices.
FADEL: Yes, the Houthis being the Yemeni group backed by Iran. We've heard concerns about a shortage of interceptor missiles that the U.S. uses to shoot down whatever Iran fires at American bases in the Gulf. And those attacks have been deadly. Here's what former Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall told us last week.
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FRANK KENDALL: I'm most concerned about the Patriot and THAAD missiles. I think we're probably, at this point, being a little careful about how many of those we use. And so that makes us a little bit more vulnerable as a result.
FADEL: How much are U.S. military stockpiles factoring into the administration's thinking at this point?
MALONEY: I think that's the other major factor, in addition to energy prices and the global economy, the fact that we've expended more than half our prewar inventory of a number of key munitions and that those munitions will take anywhere from one to four years to resupply. That's going to be a critical pressure point for the administration. They have to take into consideration the needs for these munitions in other conflicts and other potential theaters moving forward, and particularly if there is no clear military value to expending them on Iran. I think it was wise for the administration to pause at this point and try to see what diplomacy can achieve.
FADEL: Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting Trump tomorrow in Washington. He's been pretty open about wanting to see the U.S. escalate attacks on Iran as President Trump seems to be looking for a way out of this war that's not popular with the majority of Americans. How much influence does Netanyahu carry with Trump?
MALONEY: Well, the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is very strong. And clearly this visit will contribute to an additional, you know, encouragement for the United States to try to, quote, unquote, "finish the job." But I think the president has a number of other incentives to try to seek at least some kind of stable outcome. A number of American partners in the Gulf are quite weary of this war. It's had an enormous impact on their societies and on their economies, and they're looking for some kind of stable outcome that doesn't involve further escalation.
FADEL: Are there other incentives?
MALONEY: I think the clear incentive is simply that the Gulf sees a future that is going to entail Iran remaining on their periphery. And they have sought to try to develop a future that is stable, that can transform their economies, that can move toward a post-oil future. That's simply not possible if they continue to have this kind of insecurity and instability in the region. And so they're looking to try to negotiate some kind of modus vivendi with Iran. And that probably involves some economic incentives to Iran.
FADEL: Who is in a stronger negotiating position right now as there are attempts to resume these talks, the U.S. or Iran?
MALONEY: I think at this point, the Iranians hold the upper hand. That's been their position really since they managed to seize control of the strait. And their willingness to endure tremendous economic pain and impose that on their own people is, unfortunately, an asset to them during these negotiations.
FADEL: Suzanne Maloney is director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for your time and your insights.
MALONEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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