STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
For more on the president's pattern of talking about Iran - peace, war, peace, war - we've called up a former State Department official who worked on Iran policy in the Biden administration. Jennifer Gavito was a career State Department official who rose near the top of the department. Welcome to the program.
JENNIFER GAVITO: Thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: OK. So when you hear the president's rhetoric, saying it's largely negotiated, actually, it's not and changing constantly, what does that do to negotiations?
GAVITO: I think on one hand, it indicates that progress is actually being made, and I tend to think that that is true here. The only way to end this conflict is through a diplomatic resolution, and those take time. I think it's important to remember that the JCPOA - the agreement over Iran's nuclear deal - took over two years to negotiate. I think at the same time, though, this may continue to suggest that there is within the Trump administration a fundamental misunderstanding of the Iranian regime and its adherence - continued adherence - to its ideological red lines because it doesn't believe it's lost this war and it doesn't think it has to compromise.
INSKEEP: I think you're suggesting that the president overstates progress because perhaps he has convinced himself that he really has made progress until reality tells him differently.
GAVITO: I think he's inching towards progress. I think it's important to note that. But those last 5% of the negotiations are always the hardest. And I think that that's the moment that we're in right now.
INSKEEP: What does it do to the United States when Iranians are able to mock our president and accuse him of manipulating the stock market, which does, in fact, move up and down with everything he says?
GAVITO: Well, I think the Iranians have perhaps a far better understanding of the United States than is the case vice versa, and they certainly understand how to get under this particular president's skin.
INSKEEP: Do we also have here an indication of divides within the administration or more broadly within the Republican Party? The president proclaims this deal. Then he discovers a lot of his fellow Republicans don't like it, and so he says, no, actually, there wasn't a deal.
GAVITO: I think that's absolutely correct. I think the president is waffling between instincts, on one hand, to cut his losses and strike whatever deal he can get in the near term to get global commerce moving again with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz in particular. If he can get progress on the nuclear deal, I think that is a benefit for him. On the other hand, I think his instinct is to wait until he can portray this as some type, any type, of strategic win for the United States, where that has proven elusive so far.
INSKEEP: You mentioned that the president is dealing with an Iran that is very dug in on certain issues that are greatly important to the United States. I suppose the United States is also dealing with an Israel that has dug in. And the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has insisted, as we heard, that Lebanon isn't going to be part of this agreement, and he wants to continue his war in Lebanon. How does that complicate things?
GAVITO: Lebanon has a real potential to be a spoiler in this negotiation. For Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon is its most important proxy. And so, therefore, Israeli attacks on Hezbollah are equated in large measure to attacks on Iran itself, and Iran is saying we can't conclude a deal as long as Israel continues to attack us. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has very little leverage over President Trump when it comes to finalizing this deal, is left really with Lebanon as the only card at his disposal. And so it is not surprising to me that he is using that at this moment to disrupt these negotiations.
INSKEEP: Can Netanyahu use that card to prevent any peace deal at all 'cause he's been very open about the idea that he doesn't think any peace deal with this particular regime is worth doing?
GAVITO: So the Trump administration can certainly - as we saw them do with the initial ceasefire with Lebanon - can certainly pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu and probably have some success in holding them back. That being said, Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very clear that it will continue to take action in its national interest in the region as it sees fit. And so it's really more of a question of whether President Trump is willing to put himself on a collision course with Prime Minister Netanyahu at this point or whether he'll let Netanyahu continue to potentially disrupt this deal.
INSKEEP: The president instead is sticking up for Israel and saying to Arab nations, listen, recognize Israel, as a few of you already have done. I recognize, as we heard from Franco, that Arab nations are unlikely to do that right now, but isn't there something in this for Arab countries?
GAVITO: Long term, there is certainly something in it. The Abraham Accords were a very positive development. That being said, I think that this is somewhat of an own goal. Saudi Arabia has been crystal clear that absent a pathway to statehood for the Palestinians, it will not normalize. And so President Trump has essentially laid something on the table that has eroded his chance of success.
INSKEEP: Jennifer Gavito is a former senior State Department official, now a senior adviser at the Cohen Group. Thanks so much.
GAVITO: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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