MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let's take a closer look now at the developments in the Strait of Hormuz. And for that, I'm joined in-studio by retired Navy SEAL and Vice Admiral Robert Harward. He served as deputy commander of United States Central Command, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East. He is now a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. Welcome back. Thanks so much for joining us once again.
ROBERT HARWARD: Good to be with you, Michel.
MARTIN: So Iran has attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. They seized two of them. This is hours after President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. I just think a lot of people might be confused about how this is possible with such a large U.S. naval presence. So I'm just wondering - why aren't the cargo vessels in and around the strait being protected, or is that not the mission?
HARWARD: You've got it, Michel. That's not the mission. They're conducting a blockade. They want to ensure all the economics are shut down in Iran. Protecting shipping is something they said all along is a much broader concern for the countries involved, and they can do that readily by putting some people with arms on the ship. But it further illustrates, to me, the success of the blockade. The Navy - our administration has reinforced how impotent the Iranian regime really is. So they've got to look at measures to show that they are still capable and to reinforce their position at the bargaining table. So I think this is all that chess game to illustrate and strengthen their position when they come to negotiate with President Trump and Vice President Vance in Pakistan.
MARTIN: So you're saying it's a success? Central Command says that it has directed more than 30 ships to turn around or return to port. So based on your experience, any knowledge you have about how much traffic or how many ships leave Iranian ports in more typical times, you think that is a good track record?
HARWARD: That is, I think, a very successful blockade, and the main point is those ships that are carrying oil. Cargo may be less relevant. It's oil, the lifeblood of Iran, so I think those metrics demonstrate how successful the blockade has been. And a real testament will be what the Iranians bring to the table. Are they really willing to capitulate on the demands President Trump has made of them?
MARTIN: Well, you know, to that end, here's White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. She told reporters yesterday that President Trump is satisfied with the naval blockade.
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KAROLINE LEAVITT: The United States maintains control over this situation, leverage over the Iranian regime. Not only have they been significantly weakened and obliterated militarily, but they are losing economically and financially every single moment that passes with this blockade.
MARTIN: OK. But if Iran is as weakened as the administration describes, why isn't it joining the U.S. at the negotiating table?
HARWARD: Because it's an existential threat to them. They know if they capitulate on the straits, the free passage and the nuclear weapons, all their toll, their tools are gone. So again, that's an existential threat, and I think the president knows that. I think she's very accurate on her description of the blockade. But I thought more importantly was the president talking to the people of Iran about the women they were going to negotiate. And he's been very steady and consistent on that. Hey, you can't slaughter your people. Help is on the way. Help is there. He talked about these women. He is being very direct in his communication with the people in Iran. And that's, at the end of the day, what this is really all about. The Iranian people came to the streets. They want a different government - one that will move forward, be progressive, provide for them. This regime has failed in that.
It's interesting to know if you look back in history, the other GCC countries - UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait - did not exist in 1971. They became nation states that year. Look how prosperous, productive and progressive those countries are today, where you have Iran, a country 10 times the size, more resource (ph), basically a failed state, illustrating how the government and the Islamic Revolution has failed the Iranian people. And so the end state of getting to a government that now uses resources to help build the country and the people is part of the end state for the president. And he's making that clear when he talks to the people of Iran.
MARTIN: So I recognize that this may be more of a political question than an operational one, but the fact is commercial trade has not rebounded. This is having an impact on the world economy, OK? So the question then becomes, why wouldn't the president then expand the mission to protect these vessels so that trade can rebound?
HARWARD: Well, no one's asked for it. You know, we're focused on the oil, and that's, I think, the most critical point. So when you talk of the world commerce, the commerce coming out there's more regional or local. Oil is global. So again, we understand the markets are up and down. They're fluctuating. But we can sustain that pain, short-term pain. Can the regime and the people of Iran endure the longer-term pain of not having the resources not just to rebuild, but just to sustain themselves daily now? And that's kind of what you're going to see play out in this negotiations.
MARTIN: Just 20 seconds left here. John Phelan, as we've reported, has just been dismissed as Navy secretary. Does this matter?
HARWARD: Well, all political appointees in every administration come and go. Did he meet his objectives? Are there new objectives? So it's just indicative of political leadership and the time and somewhat inconsistency or fluid situation all political appointees are in.
MARTIN: That's Robert Harward. He's a retired vice admiral and previously served as deputy commander of United States Central Command. Admiral, thank you so much.
HARWARD: Thank you. I enjoyed being with you, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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