U.S. population growth is slowing. The immigration crackdown is a major factor

By Scott Horsley

Published January 7, 2026 at 3:23 PM EST

An aggressive crackdown on immigration by the Trump administration is contributing to slower population growth in the U.S. Congressional forecasters now think the country will add 7 million fewer people over the next decade than they were projecting a year ago.

The U.S. population isn't growing the way it used to.

Congressional forecasters have lowered their projection of population growth over the next decade by 7 million people, in response to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown as well as falling birth rates.

The U.S. population is now projected to grow from 349 million this year to 357 million in 2035, according to a forecast released Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office.

That's slower growth than CBO was predicting a year ago. The biggest reason for the downshift is the administration's aggressive effort to cut down on illegal immigration. The U.S. also admitted fewer foreign students in 2025, although the number of authorized green card holders is expected to increase over the next decade.

In addition to slowing immigration, people in the U.S. are having fewer children, which is also putting the brakes on population growth. By 2030, the CBO estimates there will be fewer babies born in the U.S. each year than there are deaths. Absent immigration, the population would begin to shrink at that point.

Immigration also helps to boost birth rates, since foreign-born women have more children, on average, than women born in the U.S.

The demographic outlook helps to shape CBO's annual economic forecast, which will be released next month.

Analysts caution that the long-run forecasts of births, deaths and immigration are uncertain and small changes in any of those factors could significantly change the population over time.