© 2026 Western New York Public Broadcasting Association

140 Lower Terrace St.
Buffalo, NY 14202

Toronto Address:
130 Queens Quay E.
Suite 903
Toronto, ON M5A 0P6


Mailing Address:
Horizons Plaza P.O. Box 1263
Buffalo, NY 14240-1263

Buffalo Toronto Public Media | Phone 716-845-7000
BTPM NPR Newsroom | Phone: 716-845-7040
Differing shades of blue wavering throughout the image
Play Live Radio
Next Up:
0:00
0:00
0:00 0:00
Available On Air Stations

Luck Of The Flip: New England Patriots Defy Probability With Coin Toss Wins

KELLY MCEVERS, HOST:

It's not like we needed another reason to hate the New England Patriots. There's Deflategate, the fact that they always win, and now this.

ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:

For the past 25 games, the Patriots have won 19 of their coin tosses. Those odds defy probability, even for the four-time Super Bowl champs.

MCEVERS: Because the chance of winning that many times...

STEVE MACEACHERN: That's about half of 1 percent.

MCEVERS: That's Steve MacEachern. He's a professor of statistics at Ohio State University. But while he says winning 19 times is unusual, it's not impossible.

MACEACHERN: If we're thinking about professional football, there are a lot of teams. And if instead of focusing only on the Patriots, you ask what's the chance that at least one of the teams win 19 out of 25, the the probability then is, of course, much larger.

SIEGEL: On the other side of the proverbial coin is losing the toss a lot. In 2011, the Cleveland Browns lost 11 in a row.

MCEVERS: The chances of that - 1 in 2048.

MACEACHERN: Losing 11 in a row is, in fact, quite a feat, but I think probably one of those things that just happens.

SIEGEL: Or does it? For the Pats, anyway, there's been some not-quite-serious speculation that the team has somehow turned the odds in their favor.

MCEVERS: But Steve MacEachern says the chance of winning or losing the toss will always stay at about 50-5.

SIEGEL: Plus, he says, it's pretty hard to deflate a coin. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.