By Mark Scott
Albany, NY – Some top economists in New York are forecasting better days ahead for the state's economy.
The economists testified Wednesday before a joint forum sponsored by the Legislature and Governor Pataki's budget office. The annual forum is designed to give elected leaders an informed opinion of the economy's direction as they put together the revenue side of the state's new budget.
Hugh Johnson of First Albany Corporation said he expects that interest rates will stay low while inflation remains under control.
"It's my expectation that economic growth will be stronger than anybody is currently forecasting," Johnson said. "In a word, a forecast for economic activity of between one percent and 1.7 percent is too low."
Still, the economists say New York may have a tougher time rebounding from the recession. Stephen Kagann, the Pataki's administration's chief economist, notes the state lost private sector jobs in 2001 for the first time since 1992.
But he says job losses relating to the World Trade Center attacks are "bottoming out." And Kagann said the job losses are less severe than they were during the last recession in the early 1990s.