In the wake of last week’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling against his tariffs, President Donald Trump has doubled down, threatening new global tariffs of 15 percent that likely will kick in over the next few days. But what does the U.S. court ruling on Trump’s tariffs mean for Canada?
Most goods exported by Canada to the US remain USMCA compliant, but an uncertain future over trade and a new North American trade agreement have Canadians again worried.
"It is a good thing any time somebody is standing up to this president and curtailing his power, particularly when it relates to trade," said Brain Clow, a deputy chief of staff to former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "So the Supreme Court’s decision; it’s a good thing thing, it’s one less tool for the president and it’s one less thing for the Canadians to worry about.
"But I don’t think it dramatically changes the overall tariff landscape that Canada and the world is suffering from right now."
And Ottawa’s federal minister for Canada-U.S. trade, Dominic Leblanc, wasn’t exactly beaming over the court decision, saying it’s only a partial victory for Canada.
"We’ll see, ultimately, what the American government does," he said. "But we remain very serene and very focused on the work we need to do."
Leblanc said the sectoral tariffs, which are damaging the Canadian economy, remain in place — tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, automobiles and lumber.
Flavio Volpe is the President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, which has been hit hard by sectoral tariffs with more uncertainty to follow.
"We know that Donald Trump, under pressure, doesn’t act more rationally," he said. "So we should all be wary of what he does over the next few days."
That feeling is mutual in other industrial sectors as well.
"We’re still on a roller coaster ride," said President and CEO of the Aluminum Association of Canada Jean Simard. "It’s very hard to see through months ahead, which is not good for anyone I guess, on both sides of the border."
And business analysts are also worried.
"We were nervous about trade relations with the US before today," said Avery Schenfeld, chief economist with one of Canada’s big banks, CIBC "And we’ re still nervous about trade relations with the US because the president is emphasizing that he has other tools to impose tariffs. And it’s not clear that Canada is going to escape those tariffs."
Ottawa has been critically focused on the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, so any celebrations over the Supreme Court announcement have been muted.
"We expect [Trump] to explore a whole range of other options," Canadian Chamber of Commerce VP of Policy and Government Relations Matthew Holmes said. "Those include introducing new legislation to give himself new presidential powers that both President Trump, but future administrations, would wield."
The past few days have, if anything, renewed a commitment by lawmakers to diversify Canada’s economy and strengthen trade deals with reliable trading partners across the globe.
