State Senator Sean Ryan took a big step forward in the race for Buffalo mayor, securing the Erie County Democratic Committee endorsement in overwhelming fashion. However, in a crowded field with 4 candidates with distinct different advantages — how much of an advantage does he or any candidate have so far in this race?
Dr. Laurie Buonanno, a political science professor at Buffalo State University, thinks at least for now, the endorsement makes Sean Ryan the frontrunner.
“I would say right now , just because Senator Ryan is the endorsed candidate it gives him an advantage. It gives him the foot soldiers, it comes with funds, so there's no question the endorsement means a lot. The fact that it was such a high percentage [of committee voters, voting for Sean Ryan], 75% it was at the end, unanimous for the Executive Committee. So that's pretty daunting to the other three candidates.”
All the candidates have distinct and unique advantages. Senator Sean Ryan has a strong presence in the Delaware district and North Buffalo. Councilmember Rasheed Wyatt’s University district historically has a high turnout rate for primaries. Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon is of course, the acting mayor which essentially comes with free press anytime he wants it, along with strong support in Buffalo’s South district. Garnell Whitfield was the city’s former fire commissioner and has a strong standing on Buffalo’s East side.
Despite the wide-ranging strengths Buonanno believes the main advantages lie with Senator Ryan and Acting Mayor Scanlon.
“I do think Senator Ryan and [Acting] Mayor Scanlon have advantages and they're different advantages. I think Senator Ryan has been selling up some union support, but Mayor Scanlon has been selling up fire and police union support. Union support means foot soldiers and it means phone calls and it means money. And so, there's one [advantage].”
Buonanno also mentioning Ryan’s senate district has about 25% of the city’s registered democrats which can prove critical come June.
“About 25% of the city's registered democrats are living in the Buffalo in Delaware, North Niagara, which is Senator Ryan. Only 10.5% of registered democrats live in the South district. If you just look at those percentages, you say, oh, Senator Ryan [has the advantage], he's got the name recognition. But recent history, shows us is that Mayor Scanlon was able to turn that South Buffalo machine into write down Byron Brown. We know the historic victory of write down Byron Brown was delivered mainly by South Buffalo, and that was at the time Councilmember Scanlon in charge of that effort.”
Councilmember Wyatt although a well-known face and currently in elected office, does not have nearly the cash on hand that Senator Ryan and Acting Mayor Scanlon has, which will make it harder to separate from those two.
Garnell Whitfield shares a similar problem to Wyatt with the addition of never running for public office before. He may struggle to even appear on the ballot in June due to simply not currently having the infrastructure in place to go out and canvass for the necessary 2,000 signatures by April 3rd in order to be on ballot.
Further crowding things, the Erie County Republican Committee has endorsed James Gardner as their candidate to be the Mayor of Buffalo. Gardner saying he was honored to receive the endorsement and wanting to give city taxpayers a “real choice”.
Gardner will go on to face the winner of the Democratic primary in the general election in November, barring any other Republicans coming forward to vie for a spot on the ballot.
