Less than a month remains before Buffalo takes a huge step towards selecting its next Mayor in the Democratic Primary. Electoral expert and University at Buffalo political science professor Shawn Donahue shares what the final weeks of this primary race could bring.
Candidate debates have always been critical indicators of the success of one's campaign, particularly for prominent positions like Governor, senator, or President. However on the local level candidate debates are far less common.
The upcoming mayoral debates will be the first time in their careers the candidates will debate before any audience as large as the ones they will see over the next few weeks. Donahue is looking to see if one particular candidate will get attacked by the others.
“So some of the dynamics I would be looking at, is there one candidate that one tries to go after. So the thing that I remember from the 2020, Democratic presidential debates is that you had those big field is that often Senator Amy Klobuchar was going after Pete Buttigieg because supposedly they were kind of going after some of the same voters."
Donahue believes Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon in particular may be the focus of said attacks.
“He’s the incumbent, but he hasn't been the incumbent for very long. So some of the problems that the city might have had that he that he could say that, you know, I inherited from Mayor Brown, well, the other candidates can try to, tie him more to some of the things that maybe voters didn't like about the Brown administration.”
City infrastructure and finances is what is believed to be the main issues of this election cycle. While opponents have continued to attack Scanlon on those issues, Scanlon has run targeted ads defending the work he’s done as acting mayor.
“One of the interesting things I've seen with Scanlon, given that I watch a lot of stuff on YouTube, is that I've seen a lot of his ads pop up there. Which is kind of an interesting strategy. If people don't have, l channel two, four, and seven on their TV you reach more voters there [youtube]," said Donahue.
"Scanlon is, trying to say that, he's done a great job. You know, he's cleaning up the city. He's building potholes, which, the thing is, I think that the state of infrastructure and the city finances are things that the other candidates are being more critical of him on because, you know, anybody that's kind of driven around Western New York this year probably will tell you it's not been a great year for potholes,” said Donahue
Former Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown set a new precedent following his shocking defeat in the 2021 Democratic primary, instead of dropping out of the race, he stayed in the race as a write-in candidate, leading to a historic victory in the general election. Sean Ryan and Chris Scanlon, the front-runners to win the primary, have qualified to run on other party lines such as an independent for Scanlon, and the Working Families line for Ryan, foreshadowing a second showdown between the two in November.
“I think that that's one of the unique things about our voting system in New York is that we have these multiple ballot lines. In most states you can only be on the ballot once. We often go and vote where, literally, it's the same candidate endorsed by all the top four parties, especially in a lot of judicial races. It does kind of give the losing candidate in a primary, which is always lower turnout than a general election, options in November,” said Donahue.
Donahue says Rasheed Wyatt and Garnell Whitfield, two other candidates who both have resumes with multiple years serving in city government, don’t have the same financial backing to compete with Ryan or Scanlon.
“Well, one of the things that makes it a little bit more difficult for them is that, compared to Ryan and Scanlon, they do not have nearly the amount of money that those two candidates have. So, you can try to make up for that, with maybe more grassroots support. But it takes money to put together that organization t to help turn out those votes."
"The primary is on June the 24th kind of late June. A lot of folks are probably going to be thinking about high school graduations and maybe where they want to go on their summer vacation, rather than maybe who's going to be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Buffalo.”
Anthony Tyson-Thompson, the fifth and final candidate in the Democratic primary, entered the race late. His resume included working in Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes' office as a communications director, as well working for the Democratic National Committee.
There will be no Republican primary for mayor of Buffalo, as attorney James Gardner is the only GOP candidate qualified for the ballot.
Early voting for the primary begins in two weeks on Saturday June 14, and ending Sunday June 22. Primary day will be Tuesday June 24.
