By Sharon Osorio
http://stream.publicbroadcasting.net/production/mp3/wbfo/local-wbfo-933102.mp3
Buffalo, NY – A local UB Poli-Sci professor says his forecast model he crafted in August predicted the republican shift of power. WBFO'S Sharon Osorio talked to profession James Campbell who kept tabs on election results until 430 Wednesday morning.
"This was a huge victory for repubs and a huge setback for dems at this point. This was of historic proportions we haven't seen change this large since the late forties," said UB Political Science professor James Campbell.
Election night 2010. Republicans loving it. Democrats feeling the blow. Professor James Campbell saod he formulated a forecast model back in August that predicted BIG gains for the Republicans.
But even this model that seemed way out on a limb and "too academic" to some, underestimated all the seats Republicans would take.
"My forecasting model predicted pretty large seat changes for the repubs, predicted in the low 50s, but it appears to be the case that repubs over 60 seats maybe as many as 65 seats so this is really kind of unchartered territory for a party, in modern times," said Campbell.
As for the governor's race here in New York, he's not surprised that Andrew Cuomo won. Campbell said he won't begin to predict what Carl Paladino will do next, but Paladino picked a prime time to join a political race.
"This was a very good year for an outsider candidate, shake things up, even in a state as liberal as New York there was a lot of sentiment to change things and rein things in a bit, and unfortunately Mr. Paladino got off message a number of times and that set his campaign back and allowed others to characterize him in an unflattering way," noted Campbell.